Labors west suburban fort cops a battering

Labor land under threat

Labor heartland in Melbourne's western suburbs took a beating on Saturday's poll seeing some of the biggest swings in the country.

The biggest hit for Labor came in the south-west seat of Lalor, previously occupied by ex-Prime Minister Julia Gillard and now taken over by Joanne Ryan. Lalor saw a huge swing of 10.2% to the Liberals candidate, Nihal Samara. The after preference count saw a 62% to 38% in favor of the ALP. The seat of Lalor incorporates Werribee, Hoppers Crossing, Laverton, Seabrook and Point Cook. The first preference count was as follows: 

Labor (Joanne Ryan) 45.6% (-18.4%), Liberal (Nihal Samara) 29.5%(+6.3%), Greens (Beck Sheffield-Brotherton) 5.8%(-1.3%), Palmer United (Joe Zappia) 5.8%.

A difference of just 55 votes separated Palmer United and the Greens, with the Greens coming out on top. 5762 informal votes have been counted to date.
The second biggest hit came in inner-western Gellibrand. A 7.5% swing was recorded to the Liberals with an after preference count of 66.7% to the ALP and 33.3% to the Liberals. The seat of Gellibrand includes Williamstown, Spotswood, Footscray, Ardeer, Altona and parts of Sunshine, Altona Meadows and Laverton. The first preference count was as follows:

Labor (Tim Watts) 46.6% (-12.3%), Liberal (David McConnell) 26.7%(+4.3%), Greens (Rod Swift) 16.4%(-1.3%) and Palmer United (Dwayne Singleton) 3.9%. 4535 informal votes have been counted to date.      

Following Gellibrand came outer-western Gorton with a 7.1% to the Liberals and an after preference count 66.5% to 33.5%. Gorton includes Melton, Caroline Springs, Burnside, Hillside, Taylors Hill, Delahey, Kings Park, Alban Vale, Deer Park and Derrimut. The first preference count was as follows:

Labor (Brendan O'Connor) 51.7% (-11.1%), Liberal (Phil Humphreys) 25.1%(+3%), Greens (Dinesh Jayasuriya) 6.2%(-2.8%) and Palmer United (Anthony Barnes) 6.2%.

A difference of just 33 votes separated Palmer United and the Greens, with the Greens coming out just on top once again. 5459 informal votes have been counted to date.
Next up is inner-city Maribyrnong with a 6% swing to the Liberals and an after preference count of 61.5% to 38.5% in favor of the ALP. The seat of Maribyrnong includes the suburbs of Moonee Ponds, Essendon, Strathmore, Airport West, Niddrie, Keilor East, Kealba, St Albans, Sunshine North, Avondale Heights, Braybrook and Maribyrnong. The first preference count was as follows:

Labor (Bill Shorten) 48.4% (-7.2%), Liberal (Ted Hatzakortzian) 33.2%(+4.6%), Greens (Richard Keech) 9.7%(-2.2%) and Palmer United (Philip Cutler) 2.7%. 4998 informal votes have been counted to date.
Lastly comes the mixed north-western seat of Calwell. The seat of Calwell includes the northern suburbs of Tullamarine, Gladstone Park, Westmeadows, Broadmeadows, Coolaroo, Greenvale, Meadow Heights, Roxburgh Park and the western suburbs of Keilor, Keilor Downs, Taylors Lakes, Sydenham and Calder Park. A swing of 6.2% was record to the Liberals in Calwell and an after preference count of 63.9% to 36.1% in favor of the ALP. The first preference count was as follows:

Labor (Maria Vamvakinou) 50.7% (-6.9%), Liberal (Ali Khan) 28.6%(+3.1%), Greens (Joanna Nevill) 5.1%(-6.1%) and Palmer United (Bryce Letcher) 4.2%. 6495 informal votes have been recorded to date. 
All of this averages out to be a 7.4% swing to the Liberals in Labor heartland. Labors losses have not necessarily translated into Liberal gains. Chunks of the lost Labor vote has gone to minor parties. The Palmer United party coming out to be the main beneficiary of the backlash against Labor, averaging a 4.5% share across these electorates. Although the Greens continue to make the top three, they too saw a decline in votes, due to the emergence of the Palmer United party and its ability to act as a magnet for protest votes.

Where to from here? Is this the decline of the Labor stronghold? Will the west ever become marginal? Will the possibility of local, Bill Shorten, taking the Labor leadership bounce the party's rating back up?

With the Liberal Party in power, we do know that funding will be secured for the East-West link. But what of Labor-backed Melbourne Metro? Can the western section of the East-west link begin first? Can the Liberal Party capitalize on its gains in the west? Or is this just a mere crack in the Labor fort, soon to be repaired and ready for the next battle?